Polarization of a Covid-19 Vaccine
Photo by Ehimetalor Akhere Unuabona on Unsplash
By Noah Williams
With announcements of promising phase 3 Covid-19 vaccine trials coming from Pfizer, BioNTech, and Moderna, convincing the public of the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine will be a considerable challenge. Pew Research found that the percent of US adults who say they would get a Covid vaccine has declined between May and September of this year. Though the decline is bipartisan, the attitude of the media and whichever presidential administration presides over distribution will undoubtably play a role in the public reception of a vaccine. A Harris poll conducted in August hints at this divide, where they find nearly 80% of Americans think that the speedy approval process for a vaccine is driven by politics. The partisan divide begins where President Trump is concerned, with 71% of Republicans and 28% of democrats responding indicating they trust the president to provide accurate information regarding a vaccine. Also indicated by the Harris poll is a low bipartisan trust in traditional media (47%), low bipartisan trust in social media (29%), and relatively high bipartisan trust in the FDA (68%). One of the most critical factors in public trust of Covid-19 vaccines will be their attribution to and endorsement by Donald Trump which may have undue influence over which Americans agree to get vaccinated.
Based on these data, an optimal outcome would require FDA approval with endorsement from public health officials before endorsement from a President Trump. The most important condition is that Trump is the last person to endorse the vaccine. This would capture the confidence of those who believe the FDA, public health experts in media, and those who preferentially trust Trump. A premature endorsement by a President Trump may create the perception that the vaccine was not properly vetted and is unsafe by those who do not trust him. A Biden administration would face a similar problem, in which bitterness and distrust from the election would make vaccinating Trump supporters who are already skeptical of institutions difficult. This situation could be salvaged with enough consolatory praise of the Trump administration for overseeing operation warp speed and/or an endorsement from a now civilian Trump. All this speculation is assuming the Harris polls are representative of the American population, the vaccine is safe by FDA standards, and the current executive transition does not disrupt distribution efforts.
Beyond consideration for the cult a personality surrounding Trump, polarization of a Covid-19 vaccine will be driven by social media. The echo chamber effect on social media has been seen to increase polarization regarding vaccines before. Though many social media platforms have attempted to provide context and nudges toward official sources, these attempts to counter misinformation only work if the user believes in the impartiality of the platform, of which not all are convinced. Those for and against the vaccine will retreat into their own information ecosystems, furthering the epistemic divorce already in high relief from the contested election.
Any campaign to disseminate accurate information would be effective only for small networks on social media, and as specific individuals and media outlets take up one narrative, others will adopt the opposite. Fortunately, policy and a flood of information regarding masks seems to have produced moderate compliance overtime. While mandating vaccines has legal precedence, any policy requiring vaccination of the general public for Covid-19 will almost certainly create resistance. It would likely take a considerable amount of time and mandatory vaccination in certain populations—who do not exhibit any unexpected side-effects—to produce a level of confidence necessary to overcome vaccine skepticism. Vaccines, like masks, will have a high level of compliance if they become an economic necessity.